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Big Picture Medicare Enrollment Statistics 🚀
Wrap your arms around the important Medicare Market "big picture" enrollment statistics
Jared Strock
August 08, 2024
This week’s newsletter is Sponsored By: Modivcare
Here is what you’ll find in this week’s newsletter!
Important links 🔗 - the best articles we found this week about the Medicare Market along with links to Jared’s recent LinkedIn posts.
Deep Dive 📚 - Big Picture Medicare Enrollment Statistics 🚀
Compliance Chatter 📢 - changes to IL Medicare Supplement birthday rule.
Sponsor Snapshot 🚀 - brought to you by Modivcare.
DATA VISUAL of the Week 📊 - Nationwide Year-end 2023 Medicare Enrollment statistics.
It’s only a 5 minute read, but it will make you 10x smarter.
Here are IMPORTANT LINKS 🔗 for the week:
Second-Largest Medicare Advantage Insurer Prepares to Lose Over 200K People - (link)
What to Know About Medicare Part D Premiums - (link)
NAACOS worries new ACO REACH changes could force exits - (link)
What are the Consequences of Health Care Debt Among Older Adults? - (link)
Medicare Supplement Rate Ranking Report – August Results - (link)
Medicare Supplement Rate Actions – 2024 Q2 Update - (link)
Jared’s recent LinkedIn posts:
DEEP DIVE 📚
Big Picture Medicare Enrollment Statistics 🚀
In order to be an effective leader in the Medicare industry it’s important to understand the big picture of the market.
Today’s deep dive gives you the important enrollment statistics that will help you wrap your arms around the overall Medicare market. Understanding these big picture statistics will help you put other topics into proper context, make good decisions, and help you anticipate future trends.
Alright, here we go!
Medicare Eligibles
It all starts with Medicare eligibles.
Driven by the “Baby Boomer” generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) the Medicare eligible population has grown significantly over the last 10 years, and is expected to continue growing for the next 10 years.
Here are the numbers:
Year-end ‘13 Medicare Eligibles: 52,464,000
Year-end ‘23 Medicare Eligibles: 66,324,000 / 26% growth
Year-end ‘33 Medicare Eligibles: 79,826,000 / 20% expected growth
Medicare Advantage (“MA”) Enrollees
As the number of individuals eligible for Medicare has been growing, those choosing Medicare Advantage (over traditional Medicare) for their insurance coverage has grown significantly.
This growth is likely driven by heavy marketing, broker incentives, low premiums, and additional ancillary benefits.
Here are the numbers:
Year-end ‘13 MA Enrollees: 15,146,000
Year-end ‘23 MA Enrollees: 32,661,000 / 116% growth
Year-end ‘32 MA Enrollees: 46,537,000 / 42% expected growth
Medicare Advantage penetration of Medicare Eligibles went from 29% in ‘13 to 49% in ‘23 and is expected to grow to 58% by 2033.
Traditional Medicare Enrollees (non MA Eligibles)
Because MA has grown faster than the underlying Medicare eligible population, the number of enrollees in Traditional Medicare decreased over the last 10 years, and is projected to continue to shrink over the next 10 years.
Here are the numbers:
Year-end ‘13 non-MA Enrollees: 37,358,000
Year-end ‘23 non-MA Enrollees: 33,672,000 / 10% decrease
Year-end ‘32 non-MA Enrollees: 33,289,000 / 1% expected decrease
Penetration of Medicare Eligibles went from 71% in ‘13 to 50% in ‘23 and is expected to shrink to 41% by 2033.
Medicare Supplement (“MS”) Enrollees
Even while the share of Medicare eligibles choosing Traditional Medicare has been shrinking, Medicare Supplement (which fills gaps of Traditional Medicare) has seen healthy growth over the last 10 years, and is expected to continue to grow.
This growth is likely driven by marketing, comprehensive benefits, flexibility and ease of use.
Here are the numbers:
Year-end ‘13 MS Enrollees: 10,992,000
Year-end ‘23 MS Enrollees: 14,149,000 / 29% growth
Year-end ‘33 MS Enrollees: 15,404,000 / 9% expected growth
Penetration of non-MA Eligibles went from 29% in ‘13 to 42% in ‘23 and is expected to grow to 48% by 2033.
Bottom Line
The underlying Medicare market is a growing market. Some aspects faster than others. But regardless, this is a good market to do business in.
How will you as a leader in this market take action to solve problems, help seniors, and grow your business?
What are you doing today in order to take advantage of the opportunities in the Medicare market over the next 10 years?
Source Data: 2023 Medicare Trustees Report, NAIC Medicare Supplement Insurance Experience Exhibits, CMS.gov, & Other Public Company Sources
Okay, that’s all for today. I hope you found this helpful!
Sponsor Snapshot 🚀: Modivcare
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By addressing factors such as transportation and remote monitoring support, we bridge the gap between members, their health plan, and their care team to improve condition management and quality of life.
Learn how Modivcare can fit into your members’ coordinated care ecosystem with solutions such as:
Non-emergency medical transportation
Virtual & remote patient care
In-home & personal care solutions
Integrated supportive care solutions
COMPLIANCE CHATTER 📢
Illinois’ current annual open enrollment period (birthday rule) provides that if an individual is at least 65 years of age but no more than 75 years of age and has an existing Medicare supplement policy, then the individual is entitled to an annual open enrollment period lasting 45 days, commencing with the individual's birthday, and the individual may purchase any Medicare supplement policy with the same issuer offering equal or lesser benefits.
The Governor of Illinois signed SB0056 this week, amending Section 363 of the Illinois Insurance Code to add that effective January 1, 2026, the individual may also purchase any Medicare Supplement policy from any affiliate authorized to transact business in the state (instead of only with the same issuer).
You can receive weekly regulatory updates like these by subscribing to our Insurance Regulatory Insights newsletter:
DATA VISUAL of the Week 📊
This week’s visual highlights Medicare Enrollment stats at the end of 2023.
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