This week’s newsletter is Sponsored By: Medicare Market Insights +
2027 AEP Opportunities Now Live - (Upgrade Now!)
Here is what you’ll find in this week’s newsletter!
Important links 🔗 - the best articles we found this week about the Medicare Market along with links to Jared’s recent LinkedIn posts.
Deep Dive 📚 - UnitedHealth Group - Q3 2026 Results
Sponsor Snapshot 🚀 - brought to you by Medicare Market Insights +
It’s only a 5 minute read, but it will make you 10x smarter.
Here are IMPORTANT LINKS 🔗 for the week:
CMS - F, G & J Deductible Announcements - (link)
Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Information for 2027 - (link)
More than 3 million Medicare Advantage enrollees need to find new plans for 2027 in third year of turmoil - (link)
Nearly Three-Quarters of Medicare Advantage Enrollees Could be Denied a Medigap Policy Due to a Pre-Existing Condition - (link)
Wyden Seeks Input on Major Overhaul of Long-Term Care In America - (link)
Elevance Health posts $1.4B in profit in Q3 earnings beat - (link)
Jared’s recent LinkedIn posts:
DEEP DIVE 📚
UnitedHealth Group - Q3 2026 Results
UnitedHealth Group is the largest player in the Medicare market and a barometer for the industry as a whole. When UNH moves, it tends to signal where the rest of the market is heading. So each quarter, we take a look at their results.
Q2 showed revenue growth stalling while profits jumped. Q3 takes the next step: revenue actually shrank.
Total consolidated revenue declined 0.4% compared to Q3 2025 ($112.7B vs. $113.2B), the first year-over-year revenue decline in our dataset, which goes back to 2017. At the same time, operating profit was up 52.1%, the Medical Loss Ratio improved 146 basis points, and UNH raised its full-year guidance to at least $20.50 in adjusted EPS.
In this week's Deep Dive, we look at Q3 membership, revenue, and profitability, then at where UNH is taking its Medicare Advantage plans in 2027.
—
Membership Trends
Medicare Advantage membership fell 9.8% year-over-year (7.605M vs. 8.435M), a loss of about 830,000 members.
MA did tick up 40,000 from Q2, the first quarter-over-quarter increase in 2026.
Medicaid fell 10.3%, Medicare Supplement fell 1.3%, and Commercial was roughly flat (-0.6%).
—
Revenue Trends
UnitedHealthcare revenue declined 0.8% ($86.3B vs. $87.1B). Medicare & Retirement fell 2.2%, which UNH attributes to changes in membership and product mix.
Optum revenue declined 3.3% ($66.9B vs. $69.2B), its third straight quarterly decline. Optum Health fell 9.9% as it served fewer value-based care patients. (Segment figures use UNH's recast Q3 2025 numbers.)
Total revenue growth in 2026: +2.0% in Q1, +0.4% in Q2, -0.4% in Q3.
—
Profitability
Operating income grew 52.1% ($6.56B vs. $4.32B). UHC was up 56.8%, with operating margin rising to 3.3% from 2.1%.
Optum Health drove most of Optum's gain, earning $735M (3.2% margin) vs. $41M (0.2%) a year ago.
The Medical Loss Ratio was 88.4%, down from 89.9% in Q3 2025. That includes $610M of favorable prior-period reserve development; without it, the MLR would be about 89.1%.
Operating margin was 5.8%, up from 3.8% a year ago but down from 7.1% in Q2.
—
What is UNH doing in 2027?
Q3 says the 2026 reset is working. The 2027 plans tell us UNH isn't done, but the approach is shifting from cutting plans to tightening the ones it keeps.
Fewer exits than the market
For 2027, about 7% of UNH members have to choose a new plan, slightly fewer than last year and below the roughly 11% across the market.
The cuts that are happening are concentrated in PPOs. HMOs are relatively stable.
Consolidation in D-SNPs
UNH is moving a large share of its D-SNP members into other UNH plans rather than terminating them. It is crosswalking more members than any other carrier.
Leaner benefits for members who stay
Premiums, MOOPs, and Part D deductibles are all going up for UNH members, generally in line with or above the market.
Supplemental benefits like dental and OTC are being trimmed.
AARP stand-alone PDP premiums are up sharply, by about $70 a month on average.
—
What It Means for the Medicare Market
UNH is getting smaller in Medicare Advantage to get more profitable. Q3 shows the strategy working: revenue is down, margins are back, and guidance is going up.
2027 sticks with the same playbook rather than changing it. Plan exits are steady at about 7% of members, below the market for the second year in a row. On top of that, UNH is tightening benefits and premiums for the members it keeps and consolidating its D-SNPs.
For distributors, about 500,000 UNH members need a new plan for 2027. A much larger group stays with UNH in a plan that now costs more or covers less, and that’s where the retention risk is.
SPONSOR SNAPSHOT 🚀: Medicare Market Insights Plus
What is Medicare Market Insights - Plus?
Medicare Advantage Insights Web Application tool
Members-Only Content
Insurance Regulatory Insights + Reg Tracker
All the moving pieces in the Medicare market result in opportunities!
Opportunities for you to help more consumers.
Opportunities for distributors to grow books of business.
Opportunities for Carriers to add new members.
Opportunities for Investors to invest in companies solving problems in the changing Medicare space.
What are you going to do to take advantage?
Stop guessing. Start making informed decisions.
What MMI + Subscribers read this week…
Oct ‘26 MA/MAPD and PDP enrollment data - October enrollment data has been loaded. Here are a few observations. (link)
11% of Medicare Advantage enrollees are losing their plan in 2027! 👋- Seven carriers are exiting individual MA entirely, Local PPO disruption climbs to 19%, and Minnesota faces a near-total reset. (link)
Insurance Regulatory Insights October 2026 - State bulletins, federal rulemaking, and a fresh round of MA bills — what's final, what's new, and what's moving. (link)
Tea Leaves - AEP 2027 🍂 - Repository of 2027 AEP changes / opportunities (link)
Non-Commissionable Plans - Aetna - A look at Aetna's Non-Commissionable Plans for Plan Year 2027 (link)
Receive regulatory updates with the Insurance Regulatory Insights newsletter.
Monthly newsletters providing insight into recent insurance regulatory action
Access to Reg Tracker, a comprehensive list of insurance regulatory actions in all states for this calendar year that are included in the newsletters.
Insurance Regulatory Insights is now included in your MMI+ subscription! You can also subscribe using the link below.
How was today's newsletter?
If you’re ready, here are some ways we can help you:
Did this get forwarded to you? Get the Medicare Market Insights newsletter sent directly to your email weekly:
