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- Medigap Market Update - Q4 2025
Medigap Market Update - Q4 2025
New Products, Rate Increases, Claims Trend, Regulatory Updates
Jared Strock & Andrew Ryba
December 18, 2025
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Here is what you’ll find in this week’s newsletter!
Important links 🔗 - the best articles we found this week about the Medicare Market along with links to Jared’s recent LinkedIn posts.
Deep Dive 📚 - Medigap Market Update - Q4 2025
Sponsor Snapshot 🚀 - brought to you by Medicare Market Insights +
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Here are IMPORTANT LINKS 🔗 for the week:
The Next Chapter of Medicare Advantage and Part D: Key Takeaways from the 2027 Proposed Rule - (link)
Louisiana abruptly cuts two Medicaid contracts, putting care options for 488,500 in limbo - (link)
CMS confirms Medicare revalidation suspension, acknowledges lost applications - (link)
What to expect from the 2026 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule - (link)
AARP raises a red flag on Social Security, Medicare - (link)
Medicare Supplement Year-End Checklist - (link)
Goliath v. Goliath - (link)
Jared’s recent LinkedIn posts:
DEEP DIVE 📚
Medigap Market Update - Q4 2025
The Medicare Supplement market has over 14 million members. While the Medicare Advantage market goes through another season of turbulence, the Medicare Supplement market has been experiencing it’s own hurdles.
In this week’s deep dive we take a look at New Products, Rate Increases, Claims Trend and Regulatory updates in the Medigap Market.
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New Products
→ No companies initiated new multi-state product filings during Q4.
→ The following chart shows the breakdown of carriers by number of states where they are offering plans today.
There are approximately 150 carriers that are offering Medicare Supplement plans today and about half of them are operating in just one state.
—
Rate Increases
→ 2025 rate filings continue to show approved increases that are 2.5% - 3.5% higher than those approved in 2024.
→ The following chart shows the average rate increases on open Medigap blocks for Plans F, G, and N over the past four years.
→ The frequency of double digit rate changes has stabilized but they continue to be much more common than in previous years.
→ The following table shows the frequency of Plan G rate increases by different levels of increase. About 40% of open blocks are implementing rate increases that are less than 10%.
Increase Amount | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
20%+ | 1% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
15 – 19.9% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 19% |
10 - 14.9% | 15% | 12% | 23% | 30% |
5 - 9.9% | 45% | 48% | 55% | 31% |
<5% | 36% | 35% | 11% | 8% |
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Updated Medigap Claim Trend Estimates
→ Experience through August suggests that Medigap claim cost trends may be down 1% from previous years.
→ Plan F and Plan G medical trends have been ranging from 10-11% over the past 3 years.
→ 2025 is showing medical trends between 9-10%.
→ We expect that these higher trends will continue to keep Loss Ratios elevated. There will be relief towards that latter half of 2026 as rate increases become more fully realized on and the higher premiums have a chance to impact experience.
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Regulatory Updates
→ No material new Medigap regulations have been passed during Q4
→ Don’t forget that DE and IN have new Birthday Rule Guarantee Issue requirements that are effective 1/1/2026.
→ And that VT has a new rule effective on 1/1/2026 that will impact the timing of rate increase filings so that their new public comment period can be accommodated.
For more detailed information on Regulatory changes, you can subscribe to our Insurance Regulatory Insights newsletter.
That is all for this deep dive into the Medicare Supplement market.
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