Here is what you’ll find in this week’s newsletter!

1. Important links 🔗 - the best articles we found this week about the Medicare Market along with links to Jared’s recent LinkedIn posts.

2. Deep Dive 📚 - The 2025 Medicare Market Year-End Report

3. Sponsor Snapshot 🚀 - brought to you by Modivcare

It’s only a 6 minute read, but it will make you 10x smarter.

DEEP DIVE 📚

THE 2025 MEDICARE MARKET YEAR-END REPORT

2025 was a year defined by reset and recalibration across the entire Medicare landscape. If 2024 was the warning shot, 2025 was the confirmation: margins stayed tight, strategies shifted, enrollment patterns diverged, and the duals ecosystem entered a new era. Carriers, brokers, and state partners all spent the year adjusting to forces that were set in motion long before January 1.

This Year-End Report brings together the major themes we tracked throughout 2025.

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I. UnitedHealth’s Volatility Set the Tone for the Year

UnitedHealth entered 2025 on top. By most measures, they “won” AEP 2025 (link), adding meaningful Medicare Advantage membership, largely driven by C-SNP growth and solid performance across several large markets. For many in the industry, UNH’s AEP result was interpreted as a signal that the worst of the 2024 challenges were behind us.

Then Q1 results (link) landed.

What appeared at first to be a continuation of prior-year strength quickly became a moment of reckoning:

• Elevated MLRs

• Pressure across Optum Health

• A new leadership team stepping in earlier than expected

UNH’s early-year stumble didn’t just affect its own stock price, it influenced how analysts, regulators, and even competitors interpreted the entire Medicare Advantage sector.

If the most diversified, scaled, and sophisticated MA operator was feeling pressure, the rest of the market likely was too.

This was the first clear signal that margin recovery would not come quickly, and that 2025 was likely to be a transitional year, not a bounce-back year.

Additional Reading → (Q2 results, Q3 results)

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II. Margin Pressure Intensified Across Medicare Advantage Carriers

One of the most consistent themes of 2025: elevated MLRs across nearly every MA-focused carrier.

This wasn’t just a UNH issue.
It was industry-wide.

The drivers were familiar but persistent:

• Higher medical utilization

• Pharmacy spend that continued to exceed expectations

• Risk-score headwinds

• Ongoing challenges from the 2024 Stars drop

Several carriers posted multi-quarter MLRs well above their target ranges, and many took additional impairment charges or revised guidance downward.

The result:

2025 became the second consecutive year of structural margin pressure, and the year when carriers finally changed strategy in visible ways.

Additional Reading →

• Medicare Carrier Financials side-by-side (Q1, Q2, Q3)

• Medical Loss Ratio Analysis (link)

Those strategy shifts showed up clearly in the next theme.

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III. Non-Commissionable Plans and High 2026 Terminations Signaled a Market in Retrenchment

The downstream effects of persistent MLR pressure were/are:

1. Non-commissionable plans grew meaningfully

Not a one-off.
Not isolated to a few carriers.

A real trend.

More MA plans entered 2025 and 2026 marked as non-commissionable.

For agents, the experience became more challenging:

Some markets now offered fewer plans, and several of those paid nothing.

2. AEP 2026 brought another high volume of plan terminations

Based on CMS’s Landscape and Crosswalk data, 2026 has one of the highest plan-exit years in recent history.

• Full plan terminations

• Service area reductions (SARs)

This means:

More members were forced to shop this AEP. More disruption. More friction across distribution.

It also highlights that while MA membership continues to rise, carrier appetite to grow aggressively is not uniform, especially in markets where medical trend outpaced revenue growth for two straight years.

Additional Reading →

• 2026 Plan Terminations (link)

• 2026 MA Market Exits (link)

• New in MMI+ : 2026 Crosswalk Opportunities + Non-Commissionable Plan Analysis (link)

• States are pushing back against Non-Commissionable Plans (link, link)

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IV. The 2026 Rate Announcement Delivered the First Real Tailwind in Years

After two tough years of margin pressure, the 2026 Rate Announcement delivered something carriers badly needed:

A meaningful increase in effective payment rates.

This was one of the most welcomed developments of 2025. Key highlights:

For many plans, this didn’t erase the financial pain of 2024–2025.
But it dramatically improved the backdrop for 2026 bids, giving carriers room to rebuild benefits, stabilize Stars strategies, or reinvest in care models.

The rate update was also a signal of CMS’s continued commitment to a balanced Medicare Advantage ecosystem. One that remains attractive but must be managed carefully.

Additional Reading →

• 2026 Rate Announcement (link)

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V. Medicare Supplement Faced Its Own High-Pressure Year

While MA captured most of the headlines, the Medicare Supplement market quietly endured one of its most turbulent years in recent memory.

1. Med Supp MLRs remained elevated

High medical trend pushed loss ratios well above historical levels for many carriers.

2. Rate increases became more significant

Consumers saw rate hikes at a scale and frequency rarely observed in the past decade.

3. The Birthday Rule continued spreading

Several more states expanded or implemented Birthday Rule legislation in 2025

Additional Reading →

• Birthday Rule Update (link)

• Medigap Market Update (link)

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VI. C-SNP Enrollment Surged While D-SNP Growth Flattened

Perhaps the most notable enrollment shift in 2025:

C-SNP became the breakout growth segment of the year.

Carriers leaned hard into C-SNP for several reasons:

• Better cost structure alignment

• Stronger ROI relative to non-SNP MA

• Operational models that respond well to targeted care coordination

Meanwhile, D-SNP growth stagnated, a dramatic departure from the prior 5–7 years of steady expansion.

Some drivers of the slowdown:

• States tightening integration requirements

• Changes in Medicaid redeterminations

• More competitive market saturation

This divergence between C-SNP and D-SNP is one of the clearest indicators of where carriers see the most viable growth opportunities today.

Additional Reading →

• D-SNP Enrollment Trends (link)

• C-SNP Enrollment Trends (link)

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VII. Other Notable Headlines from 2025

1. Medicare-Medicaid Plans (MMPs) Reached Their Final Year (link)

2. HCSC Completed Its Acquisition of Cigna’s Medicare Block (link)

3. Star Ratings 2026 (link)

4. Tea Leaves - AEP 2026 (link)

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VIII. Final Note

If you want access to the data, maps, and tools behind this analysis including 2026 termination visualizations, crosswalk insights, non-commissionable plan tracking, regulatory compliance insights, and Medicare Advantage enrollment intelligence → join MMI+.

If you’re ready, here are some ways we can help you:

• Newsletter Sponsorship opportunities: Promote your product or services to leaders in the Medicare space. Let’s discuss. (link)

• Market Research: Reports that help you wrap your arms around the Senior focused insurance markets. (link)

• Consulting: We can help you develop new insurance products for the Medicare market, appraise your books of business, and keep you compliant. Let’s discuss. (link)